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Economic Forecasting Using Leading Indicators

Economic indicators can be leading, lagging or coincident with changes in economic growth. Diffusion indexes can combine multiple indicators.

Advantages to leading indicator approaches to economic forecasting include:

  • Intuitive, simple-to-construct models
  • Availability from third parties
  • Can be tailored to fit individual needs
  • Effective use is well documented in economic literature

Disadvantages include:

  • They have not historically worked consistently because the relationships between inputs are not static
  • They can provide false signals
For more information, see all articles on: Economic Analysis

See also:
  • Econometric Modeling
  • Approaches to Forecasting Exchange Rates
  • Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?
  • Components of Economic Growth Trends
  • Adjusting Net Income to Reflect Economic Pension Expense
  • Technical Analysis Explained : The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points

    The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing

    Financial Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide, 3rd Edition

    Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process (CFA Institute Investment Series)

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