Economic Forecasting Using Leading Indicators
Economic indicators can be leading, lagging or coincident with changes in economic growth. Diffusion indexes can combine multiple indicators.
Advantages to leading indicator approaches to economic forecasting include:
- Intuitive, simple-to-construct models
- Availability from third parties
- Can be tailored to fit individual needs
- Effective use is well documented in economic literature
Disadvantages include:
- They have not historically worked consistently because the relationships between inputs are not static
- They can provide false signals
The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing
Financial Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide, 3rd Edition
Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process (CFA Institute Investment Series)